Blessing Dams or Crushing Hope? A Theoretical Framework on State Capacity, Regime Types, and Conflict Dynamics over Dam Projects
Abstract:
This paper is part of a broader dissertation project that draws on a rich interdisciplinary perspective on state capacity, contentious politics, political geography, and political ecology to analyze the dynamics of conflict around Chinese-backed hydro-dam projects in Ghana (Bui dam) and Sudan (Merowe dam). A key argument is that, while these mega-projects are textbook examples of state-building efforts, a narrative they have helped reinforce, they also have generated major pushbacks, especially from the project-affected communities and those backing them. This paper proposes a working theoretical framework to help analyze the complexity of the dynamic contentions over these major infrastructural undertakings in Africa. As such, the theoretical model focuses on political regimes and state capacity and how they combine to shape the resulting conflict dynamics over dam building efforts. It specifically argues that different political power structures (regime types) rely on different dimensions of state capacity to deal with development-induced crises such as those arising from dam building, which shapes the dynamics of the resulting conflicts.
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